FMI sobre Portugal: depois não digam que o pessimismo vem do Fado

Foi publicado esta semana o relatório anual do FMI sobre Portugal.

Lorenzetti leu-o e, como não é mesquinho, fez um resumo dos pontos a melhorar (de acordo com o FMI, note-se...), e entre as 50 e tal páginas do dito relatório.

Assim, ficam algumas citações curiosas, notando Lorenzetti que não concorda necessariamente com todas (desde logo a que se refere à separação de poderes como limite à acção dos Governos e, também, a ideia que parece em voga segundo a qual se um qualquer país paga um cêntimo de salário mensal, devemos pagar ainda menos -- e se possível nem ter férias nem fins de semana -- para sermos competitivos; concordamos em absoluto, no entantom quanto à parte da triste eliminação do investimento):

(...) Directors stressed the need for further progress in addressing fiscal vulnerabilities and for action on structural measures to increase productivity and improve competitiveness (...)

Investment has collapsed, the unemployment rate has doubled, the 2005 fiscal deficit reached 6 percent of GDP, and the current account deficit has swollen to more than 9 percent of GDP. A lengthy period of adjustment will be required not only to restore external competitiveness but also to ensure the sustainability of public finances.

(...)Timely and decisive implementation of these initiatives will be necessary to
maintain the credibility of the government’s program.(...)

further enhancements to the business environment will remain a priority. The authorities continue to assign a lower priority to labor market reform, arguing that de facto employment protection is weaker than standardized indicators suggest. The staff views reforms to employment protection legislation and collective bargaining arrangements as an essential component of any strategy to contain unit labor costs.(...)

the current account deficit has swollen to more than 9 percent of GDP. Owing partly to slow growth, but more fundamentally to rising primary spending and the abandonment of one-off measures, the SGP-monitored fiscal deficit reached 6 percent of GDP last year, leading to the launching of the second Excessive Deficit Procedure by the EU in just three years. Portugal confronts a difficult environment, with sizable fiscal and balance of payments deficits; a weak competitive position, especially within an enlarged EU; and high private indebtedness.(...)

A sharp fall in total factor productivity lies at the root of Portugal’s poor
growth performance: proposed fiscal measures had provoked strong opposition from some interest groups,complicating their development and approval.(...)

The mission also pressed the case for a fundamental labor market reform, which has had a low profile in the policy debate. (...)

High deficits and indebtedness divert resources from more productive uses, and
preclude desirable reductions in marginal tax rates. They also contribute to uncertainty about future fiscal policy, further discouraging investment. And, of course, faster growth would facilitate more rapid deficit reduction. Beyond this, the mission noted, a history of high tax evasion has introduced distortions that lead to inefficient business decisions; excessive bureaucracy has discouraged investment; and problems with the education and training system have contributed to generally low levels of human capital. (...)

separation of powers provisions limit the government’s freedom of action.(...)

the authorities consider whether, over the longer run, financial market globalization and deregulation implied that full state ownership of the entity might no longer be the most effective means of achieving their policy objectives.ização 'sugerida' da CGD)(...)

Slippages in the reform agenda—especially on fiscal measures—would only damage confidence and increase the duration and costs of adjustment.(...)

The relatively high levels of household and corporate debt, the concentration of bank lending to the real estate sector and to a limited number of the exposure of banks’ employee pension schemes to the stock market call for continuous vigilance.(...)

E assim acontece.


Portugal: 2006 Article IV Consultation - Staff Report; Staff Statement; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Portugal
Published: October 24, 2006
Series: Country Report No. 06/377