FMI sobre Portugal, 2oo7

Foi publicado esta semana o relatório do FMI quanto a Portugal [o relatório no âmbito do art. IV, publicado periodicamente sobre cada Estado-membro do FMI].

Desta vez o relatório é bastante banal, não dizendo nada do que não sabemos quanto ao que o actual governo tem vindo a fazer.

No entanto, em termos de recomendações, discordamos do conselho do FMI dado ao Governo Português para que mantenha a carga fiscal e, ao mesmo tempo, desenvolva políticas anti-evasão fiscal e redução de prestações sociais.

Não faz sentido nenhum do ponto de vista económico, financeiro e social que se reduzam direitos sociais e a estrutura do Estado sem que se reduzam os impostos, sobretudo havendo progressos no combate contra a evasão que, se fosse estirpada, certamente possibilitaria uma redução genial das taxas de incidência. Senão, não se percebe qual a vantagem de cortes em prestações sociais que em países como França seriam fortemente contestados pela população ou que, no caso dos países nórdicos, são sustentados com uma carga fiscal compatível.

Ficam extractos das partes relevantes das conclusões do relatório:

'5. The ambitious deficit reduction target for 2006 was surpassed. The fiscal deficit was budgeted to be brought down from 6 percent of GDP in 2005 to 4.6 percent of GDP - a target that many (including the IMF) thought demanding. The outcome of 3.9 percent of GDP is thus a major achievement. This improvement was mainly driven by expenditure reduction, especially of the wage bill, and to a lesser extent by unexpected revenue strength in the latter part of the year. This strong performance reflects determination to stick to tight expenditure targets and to strictly enforce the new local and regional government financing framework. And while such revenue strength is being seen elsewhere in the euro area, in Portugal's case, the marked improvement in tax administration is clearly a contributing factor.

6. Notwithstanding the significant progress made in 2006, substantial further fiscal adjustment is still required. Portugal's deficit is projected to remain above 3 percent of GDP this year and far from the government's Medium-term Objective (MTO) of half a percentage point of GDP in 2010, public debt is above 60 percent of GDP, and the public sector remains oversized. While the reform of the social security schemes significantly improved long-term fiscal sustainability, the projected increase in age-related spending remains substantial.

7. The revenue overperformance is continuing in 2007 and should be saved. Data through May suggest that revenues remain strong, driven by buoyant corporation tax receipts. The government's intention to save the revenue overperformance is thus welcome. This would imply a deficit for 2007 slightly below the revised government target of 3.3 percent of GDP. In this regard, the government should be vigilant to ensure expenditure plans are adhered to; in particular, there appears risk of spending overruns on social transfers, health, and transfers to the public roads company (Estradas de Portugal). The new mechanism in place to better monitor budget execution of local government should flag any signs of potential slippages; any further large shortfalls of local government capital spending compared to budget should be carefully monitored.

9. The restructuring of the central administration is making good progress and is entering a critical phase. The number of central administration structures has been cut by a quarter, the new public employment framework has been submitted to parliament, and recruitment has been kept to less than half of departures. The process is now entering a critical and challenging phase of moving significant numbers of civil servants into the special mobility pool.

10. With fiscal consolidation performing better than expected, the government has faced pressure to reduce the tax burden—it should be resisted. Given Portugal's fiscal situation, there is no room for a discretionary reduction in the tax burden in the near term, nor could it be expected to produce a quick growth response. And despite the recent increase in the tax-to-GDP ratio, it is still below the euro area average. Nevertheless, there is scope for further simplifying some tax laws and procedures, which could have a significant impact on competitiveness, especially for small and medium-sized firms.

11. The recent improvement in the efficiency and effectiveness of the tax administration should be built upon. Impressive achievements of the tax administration are reflected in the enhanced registers, more use of electronic filing and accounting, improved audit results, more reliable databases and wide-scale information cross-checks. These measures have helped bring the Portuguese tax administration more in line with international best practice. But there is scope for further strengthening to support growth through greater focus on taxpayer services and non-compliance. Specific measures, which go in the direction being pursued by the tax administration, could include establishing a taxpayer assistance function, implementing a full functional Large Taxpayer Office, adopting risk management systems for audit selection, and continuing debt collection enforcement. In this context, improving the effectiveness of the special judicial system for tax issues is key'.